Lapho izimvula zonyaka zifika kamuva e-Indonesia, abalimi bavame ukukuthatha njengophawu lokuthi akufanelekile ukutshala kumanyolo wezitshalo zabo.Kwesinye isikhathi bakhetha ukungatshali nhlobo izitshalo zonyaka.Ngokuvamile, benza isinqumo esifanele, ngoba ukuqala sekwephuzile kwenkathi yemvula ngokuvamile kuhlobene nesimo se-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) kanye nemvula enganele ezinyangeni ezizayo.
Ucwaningo olusha olushicilelwe ku- "Imibiko Yesayensi" lubonisa ukuthi i-ENSO iwumjikelezo wokuguquka kwesimo sezulu wokufudumala nokupholisa eduze noLwandlekazi iPacific eduze nenkabazwe, kanye nesibikezelo esinamandla kuze kube iminyaka emibili ngaphambi kokuvunwa kwesihlahla sikakhokho.
Lokhu kungase kube izindaba ezinhle kubalimi abancane, ososayensi kanye nemboni kashokoledi yomhlaba wonke.Ikhono lokubikezela usayizi wesivuno kusengaphambili lingase lithinte izinqumo zokutshala izimali epulazini, lithuthukise izinhlelo zocwaningo lwezitshalo ezishisayo futhi linciphise izingozi nokungaqiniseki embonini kashokoledi.
Abacwaningi bathi indlela efanayo ehlanganisa ukufunda ngomshini okuthuthukisiwe nokuqoqwa kwedatha yesikhathi esifushane eqinile mayelana nemikhuba yabalimi kanye nesivuno ingasetshenziswa nakwezinye izitshalo ezithembele emvuleni, okuhlanganisa ikhofi neminqumo.
UThomas Oberthür, umbhali kanye nomthuthukisi webhizinisi we-African Plant Nutrition Institute (APNI) e-Morocco, uthe: "Indlela emisha emisha yalolu cwaningo ukuthi ungakwazi ukufaka idatha yesimo sezulu esikhundleni sedatha ye-ENSO."“Usebenzisa le ndlela, ungahlola noma yini ehlobene ne-ENSO.Izitshalo ezinobudlelwano bokukhiqiza.”
Cishe amaphesenti angama-80 omhlaba olimekayo athembele emvuleni eqondile (ngokungafani nokunisela), okwenza cishe u-60% womkhiqizo usuwonke.Nokho, ezindaweni eziningi zalezi zindawo, imininingwane yemvula iyingcosana futhi ishintshashintsha kakhulu, okwenza kube nzima ngososayensi, abakhi bemithetho, namaqembu abalimi ukuzivumelanisa nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu.
Kulolu cwaningo, abacwaningi basebenzise uhlobo lokufunda komshini olungadingi amarekhodi esimo sezulu avela emapulazini e-cocoa e-Indonesia abambe iqhaza ocwaningweni.
Kunalokho, bathembele kudatha yokufakwa kukamanyolo, isivuno, kanye nohlobo lwepulazi.Baxhume le datha ku-Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) futhi bathola ukuthi isigaba se-ENSO sibikezele u-75% wenguquko yesivuno.
Ngamanye amazwi, ezimweni eziningi ocwaningweni, izinga lokushisa lolwandle lwasePacific Ocean lingabikezela ngokunembile ukuvunwa kukabhontshisi we-cocoa.Kwezinye izimo, kungenzeka ukwenza izibikezelo ezinembile ezinyangeni ezingu-25 ngaphambi kokuvuna.
Okokuqala, ngokuvamile kungenzeka ukugubha imodeli engabikezela ngokunembile ushintsho lokukhiqiza lwama-50%.Lolu hlobo lokunemba kwesibikezelo sesikhathi eside sokuvunwa kwezitshalo aluvamile.
Umbhali kanye nomcwaningi ohlonishwayo wale nhlangano uJames Cock uthe: “Lokhu kusivumela ukuthi silawule izindlela ezahlukene zokuphatha epulazini, njengezinhlelo zokuvundisa, futhi singenelele ngokungenelela okuphumelelayo ngokuzethemba okukhulu."I-International Biodiversity Organisation kanye ne-CIAT."Lokhu kuwushintsho oluphelele ocwaningweni lokusebenza."
UCock, isazi sesayensi yezitshalo, uthe nakuba izivivinyo ezilawulwa ngokungahleliwe (RCTs) ngokuvamile zibhekwa njengezinga legolide locwaningo, lezi zivivinyo ziyabiza futhi ngakho-ke ngokuvamile akunakwenzeka ekuthuthukiseni izifunda zezolimo ezishisayo.Indlela esetshenziswa lapha ishibhile kakhulu, ayidingi ukuqoqwa kwamarekhodi esimo sezulu abizayo, futhi inikeza isiqondiso esiwusizo sokuphatha kangcono izitshalo ekushintsheni kwesimo sezulu.
Umhlaziyi wedatha nombhali oholayo wocwaningo u-Ross Chapman (Ross Chapman) uchaze ezinye zezinzuzo ezibalulekile zezindlela zokufunda ngomshini kunezindlela ezivamile zokuhlaziya idatha.
U-Chapman uthe: “Imodeli ye-BNN ihlukile kumodeli evamile yokuhlehla ngenxa yokuthi i-algorithm ithatha izinto eziguquguqukayo (ezifana nezinga lokushisa lolwandle nohlobo lwepulazi) bese ifunda ngokuzenzekelayo' ukuze ibone ukusabela kokunye okuguquguqukayo (okufana nesivuno sezitshalo), ” kusho uChapman.“Inqubo eyisisekelo esetshenziswa enqubweni yokufunda iyafana nenqubo ubuchopho bomuntu obufunda ngayo ukubona izinto namaphethini ekuphileni kwangempela.Ngokuphambene nalokho, imodeli evamile idinga ukugadwa mathupha kokuhlukahluka okuhlukahlukene ngokusebenzisa izibalo ezenziwe ngokwenziwa.”
Nakuba ingekho idatha yesimo sezulu, ukufunda ngomshini kungase kuholele ekubikezelweni kwesivuno esingcono, uma amamodeli okufunda emishini engasebenza kahle, ososayensi (noma abalimi ngokwabo) basadinga ukuqoqa ngokunembile ulwazi oluthile lokukhiqiza futhi benze le Data itholakale kalula.
Epulazini likakhokho lase-Indonesia kulolu cwaningo, abalimi sebeyingxenye yohlelo olungcono kakhulu lokuqeqesha inkampani enkulu kashokoledi.Balandelela okokufaka okufana nokufakwa kukamanyolo, babelane ngokukhululekile ngale datha ukuze bahlaziywe, futhi bagcine amarekhodi ehlanzekile e-International Plant Nutrition Institute (IPNI) ehlelekile yendawo ukuze abacwaningi bawasebenzise.
Ukwengeza, ososayensi ngaphambilini bahlukanise amapulazi abo ngamaqembu ayishumi afanayo anesimo esifanayo nesimo senhlabathi.Abacwaningi basebenzise isivuno, ukufakwa kukamanyolo, kanye nedatha yesivuno kusukela ngo-2013 kuya ku-2018 ukwakha imodeli.
Ulwazi olutholwa abalimi bakakhokho lubenza babe nokuzethemba ekutheni batshala kanjani futhi nini kumanyolo.Amakhono e-agronomic atholwe yileli qembu elincishwe amathuba angabavikela ekulahlekelweni kokutshalwa kwezimali, okuvame ukwenzeka ngaphansi kwezimo zezulu ezimbi.
Ngenxa yokubambisana kwabo nabacwaningi, ulwazi lwabo manje lungabiwa ngandlela thize nabalimi bezinye izitshalo kwezinye izingxenye zomhlaba.
UCork uthe: “Ngaphandle kwemizamo ehlanganyelwe yomlimi ozinikele i-IPNI kanye nenhlangano eqinile esekela abalimi i-Community Solutions International, lolu cwaningo ngeke lwenzeke.”Ugcizelele ukubaluleka kokubambisana kwezinhlaka ezahlukene futhi walinganisa imizamo yabathintekayo.Izidingo ezahlukene.
U-Oberthür we-APNI uthe amamodeli anamandla okubikezela angazuzisa abalimi nabacwaningi futhi akhuthaze ukubambisana okwengeziwe.
U-Obertoor uthe: “Uma ungumlimi oqoqa imininingwane ngesikhathi esifanayo, udinga ukuzuza imiphumela ebonakalayo.”“Lo mfuziselo unganikeza abalimi ulwazi oluwusizo futhi ungasiza ekukhuthazeni ukuqoqwa kwedatha, ngoba abalimi bazobona ukuthi benza umnikelo, okuletha izinzuzo epulazini labo.”

suzy@lstchocolatemachine.com

www.lstchocolatemachine.com